Cherry recalls a sticky February day, a week after her tenth birthday, when her father Arthur prepared to leave on a fishing trip with friends Ralph and Angelo. Before departing, he flipped a penny and used the moment to teach Cherry about probability. When Cherry assumed that after two consecutive heads, tails was more likely, Arthur explained that a coin has no memory—each toss is independent. He then told her about the famous 1913 Monte Carlo casino incident, where gamblers lost millions betting on red after twenty-six consecutive blacks, illustrating what is known as the gambler's fallacy.

Cherry reveals this was her last conversation with her father. While rock fishing at Avoca Beach, Arthur was struck and killed by lightning. Though he was the most cautious of the three fishermen, he was also the tallest, making him the most vulnerable target. Cherry reflects on the rarity of death by lightning and wonders about her father's last unfinished thought.

Cherry has no memory of receiving the news of her father's death. She was told she reacted oddly—she didn't cry, simply nodded and returned to her homework. For years she felt ashamed of this response, until decades later a stranger at a party who had also lost a father in childhood reassured her that she had simply been in shock. Cherry does remember her mother Mae's reaction: Mae nearly collapsed, caught by Auntie Pat, and repeated "No" over and over with her head on the kitchen table. Young Cherry found her mother's grief undignified.

The day after the funeral, Cherry encountered Jiminy Cricket—their insurance agent—and told him her father had died, expecting a payout. Cherry reflects that life insurance is essentially a bet on when you'll die, and her family "won" because it was improbable that a strong, clever man like her father would die at thirty-two. She connects this to her broader understanding of probability and the gambler's fallacy, noting that even financial experts often fail to grasp these principles.