Churchill views the United States as central to Britain’s survival because Germany appears ready to dominate Europe. The Luftwaffe is believed stronger than the RAF, German submarines and raiders are choking Britain’s supplies, and only American power seems capable of restoring the balance.

Soon after becoming prime minister, Churchill reveals this strategy to his son Randolph at Admiralty House. While shaving, Churchill says he can see a way through the war. When Randolph asks whether he means merely avoiding defeat or actually beating Germany, Churchill sharply insists that Britain can win and says his plan is to bring the United States into the conflict.

Across the Atlantic, however, American opinion has turned strongly against entering a European war. After Germany invades the Low Countries, Gallup finds overwhelming opposition to declaring war, and the Neutrality Acts reinforce the nation’s isolationist mood by limiting arms exports and transport. Although Americans feel sympathy for Britain, the fall of Chamberlain’s government on the day of Hitler’s offensive raises doubts about British stability.

On May 11, Roosevelt gathers his cabinet, where Churchill’s leadership becomes a subject of debate. The mood is skeptical: Harold Ickes calls Churchill unreliable under the influence of drink and too old, and Frances Perkins later recalls Roosevelt seeming uncertain. Those doubts have been strengthened by Sumner Welles’s earlier report portraying Churchill as heavily drinking and by Ambassador Joseph Kennedy’s pessimistic dispatches about both Churchill and Britain, making clear that the American support Churchill wants will be difficult to secure.