Chapter 1

Contains spoilers

Overview

Three months after the Institute’s fall, Tim Jamieson is confronted at Catawba Hill Farm by a representative of the shadow organization, a blond man calling himself Bill Smith. Smith claims the Institutes prevented global catastrophes by executing targets identified by precognitive seers, and warns Tim and the children to stay silent. Luke Ellis, Kalisha Benson, Nicky Wilholm, and Annie Ledoux join Tim; Luke methodically dismantles Smith’s argument using probability, exposing the unreliability of long-range predictions. The tense encounter ends with a show of subtle TK from the kids that unnerves Smith, who departs under implicit threat and without violence.

Summary

On a cool October morning, about three months after the events at the Institute, Tim Jamieson walks from Catawba Hill Farm to the roadside mailbox and is approached by a dusty Chevy Malibu. The driver, a handsome, nondescript blond man with a faint lisp who calls himself Bill Smith, greets Tim and assures he is not there to cause trouble. Tim keeps his hand near the Glock taken from Taggart Faraday. Smith probes about Wendy Gullickson’s whereabouts and demonstrates detailed knowledge of the children: George Iles and Helen Simms have been placed with relatives; Nicky Wilholm is set to leave for Nevada; Kalisha Benson will soon go to her sister in Houston; and Luke Ellis remains with Tim to study and recover.

Smith compliments Tim and Wendy for quietly reintegrating the children and warns that if any of them talk, there will be consequences despite rumors of a protective flash drive. He states all Institutes worldwide have been shut down or collapsed following the revolt, with two foreign sites ending in mass suicides. He blames Tim and Luke for “ruining” the organization and begins to justify the Institutes’ mission: born from Nazi-era experiments, refined postwar using BDNF markers, the network supposedly prevented nuclear or geopolitical catastrophes “over five hundred times” by eliminating “hinges,” people whose future influence could trigger global disaster.

As Smith outlines this, Luke arrives down the driveway; further up, Annie Ledoux stands watch with a shotgun, with Kalisha and Nicky beside her. Luke identifies the key hidden element: precognition. Smith admits there is a small, elite, safe facility—possibly in Switzerland—housing six adult precogs who serve as a global early warning system, locating future hinges for Institute children to kill via combined TP/TK power.

Tim rejects precognition as pseudoscience, but Luke defends that short-term precognitive flashes can be real, citing research and common anecdotes like Annie’s aunt who foresaw a deadly juke joint fire the same night. Luke then challenges the system’s core: using a Bernoulli distribution, he explains that prediction accuracy sharply decays with time; short-horizon forecasts can be verified and are often accurate, but long-range forecasts (years to decades) are unreliable. Kalisha and Nicky press Smith, noting their tests likely focus on near-term events because those can be graded.

Smith insists they have recorded successes across decades and asks whether saving the world even five or fifty times would justify the cost. Luke argues Smith and his organization ignore randomness and variables, perhaps even being unconsciously misled by precogs living comfortably. Annie questions how they can be sure predictions would come true after killing the subjects; Tim likens the logic to Vietnam-era rationalizations. The children link hands, and a low psychic hum builds.

As tension rises, subtle TK phenomena manifest: Smith’s cigarette pack skitters away, the Malibu’s wipers and lights switch on, and dust from the departing car seems to veer. Sweating and rattled, Smith delivers a final warning: no interviews or public posts, or they will respond seriously. Tim and Annie tell him to leave while he still can. Smith points at Luke and says everyone believes what they want, predicting Luke will learn this to his sorrow, then drives off. Annie matter-of-factly suggests it might have been simpler to kill him, but Luke and Kalisha refuse, noting that would make them like their enemies. Nicky wistfully acknowledges the temptation, and the moment passes without bloodshed.

Who Appears

  • Tim Jamieson
    caretaker and protector of the escaped children; confronts Bill Smith and rejects the moral calculus of the Institutes.
  • Bill Smith
    new; emissary of the shadow organization behind the Institutes; explains the precog-driven “hinge” program, warns them to stay silent, and departs rattled.
  • Luke Ellis
    survivor; challenges Smith’s claims with probability (Bernoulli distribution), demonstrates subtle TK influence, refuses to resort to killing.
  • Kalisha Benson
    survivor; supports Luke’s reasoning, reads Smith’s evasions, helps build the psychic pressure, plans to reconnect with her sister.
  • Nicholas (Nicky) Wilholm
    survivor; backs Luke, adds observations, briefly relishes the thought of stopping Smith but stands down; scheduled to leave for Nevada.
  • Annie Ledoux
    ally; stands guard with a shotgun, shares an anecdote supporting short-term precognition, urges Smith to leave, considers harsher options.
  • Wendy (Deputy Gullickson)
    discussed; in Columbia at hearings and meetings about the prior shoot-out and county law enforcement future.
  • George Iles
    discussed; relocated to an uncle in California.
  • Helen Simms
    discussed; relocated to grandparents in Delaware.
  • Tony Stackhouse
    discussed; whereabouts unknown and deemed irrelevant by Tim.
  • Precogs (Swiss facility)
    new group; six adult seers whose long-range predictions allegedly guided Institute killings.
  • Paul Westin
    discussed; a targeted evangelist hinge whose survival, Smith claims, could lead to future war.
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