Abundance
by Ezra Klein
Contents
Chapter 5: Deploy
Overview
Klein argues that breakthroughs matter far less than the ability to deploy them, using penicillin’s stalled early years to dismantle the “eureka myth.” He shows how U.S. wartime institutions turned penicillin into a mass-produced lifesaver, then contrasts that success with America’s repeated failure to scale its own inventions, especially solar power, which Germany and China made cheap through sustained deployment.
Operation Warp Speed serves as a modern model of government as a “bottleneck detective,” coordinating science, manufacturing, supply chains, and distribution while using both push and pull incentives. The chapter ends by proposing tools like advance market commitments and by warning that AI makes energy abundance a defining constraint—one that requires deliberate political focus rather than waiting for catastrophe.
Summary
The chapter opens with the discovery of penicillin: Alexander Fleming notices mold killing staphylococcus in 1928, but the breakthrough stalls. Howard Florey and Ernst Chain later prove penicillin can save infected mice, yet by 1941 human results are limited and deadly, showing that a famous “eureka” can still amount to almost nothing without follow-through.
Klein argues the “eureka theory of history” misleads because progress depends on implementation—turning an idea from “one to one billion.” He illustrates how the U.S. often invents but struggles to deploy: American elevators become overengineered and costly; the U.S. pioneered nuclear and solar but fell behind; and a U.S.-developed LFP battery technology ended up being manufactured at scale in China.
Returning to penicillin, the narrative shows how U.S. wartime state capacity converted discovery into mass benefit. Under Roosevelt’s wartime innovation system and Vannevar Bush’s Office of Scientific Research and Development, the Committee on Medical Research identified bottlenecks (chemistry, contamination, and production), standardized processes, funded factories through the War Production Board, ran clinical trials, and organized distribution through selected hospitals. Scale drove costs down dramatically, and penicillin reshaped medicine and survival in war and civilian life.
The chapter then traces a parallel lesson through solar power: Bell Labs created the first practical solar cell in 1954, and U.S. government demand (space) and 1970s policy support rapidly improved cost and efficiency. Reagan-era cuts and policy whiplash helped collapse momentum, while Germany built a market through subsidies and China made panels cheap through sustained support and manufacturing scale, reflecting Wright’s law: building more teaches you how to build cheaper and better.
Klein reframes government’s role by rejecting the notion that markets alone deploy breakthrough technologies. Operation Warp Speed becomes a modern example of “bottleneck detective” governance: it spread bets across platforms, accelerated trials and FDA review, expanded manufacturing facilities, solved supply-chain constraints (like ultracold glass vials), coordinated distribution logistics, and bought doses so vaccines were free. Despite immense benefits, the program becomes politically orphaned, and Klein argues the correct lesson is that focused, pragmatic government can speed invention and deployment.
Finally, Klein generalizes the approach: identify the specific constraints of each sector; remove needless restrictions (such as limits on medical training capacity); and use smarter tools like pull funding and advance market commitments to reduce demand uncertainty, illustrated by a pneumococcal vaccine deal and potential applications in carbon removal and clean cement. He warns that AI’s energy hunger makes clean-energy deployment a central national bottleneck and concludes that “focus is a choice”: crises can concentrate priorities, but leaders can also define crises and choose to build what America invents.
Who Appears
- Alexander FlemingScientist who discovers penicillin’s bacteria-killing mold, but cannot translate it into a usable medicine.
- Howard FloreyOxford professor who advances penicillin from lab observation toward animal and early human testing.
- Ernst ChainBiochemist partnering with Florey; helps develop penicillin but struggles to scale human use initially.
- Franklin D. RooseveltPresident who approves wartime innovation coordination that enables U.S. scaling of penicillin.
- Vannevar BushArchitect of OSRD wartime innovation system that organizes R&D and deployment for penicillin.
- James Phinney Baxter IIIHistorian quoted on contamination irony and penicillin’s “happy breeze” discovery framing.
- Joel MokyrEconomic historian cited for “microinventions” needed to tinker, embody, and scale technology.
- Thomas EdisonUsed to show innovation is systems-building and incremental improvements, not lone invention.
- Ronald ReaganPresident whose policy cuts and ideology help derail U.S. solar development and deployment.
- Gregory NemetScholar of solar’s cost decline; attributes U.S. slowdown largely to Reagan-era policy choices.
- Mariana MazzucatoEconomist cited to argue governments already “pick” technologies underpinning modern products.
- John Maynard KeynesQuoted to define government’s role: do what markets cannot or will not do at all.
- Paul MangoOperation Warp Speed official describing venture-capital bets, logistics, and focus on deployment.
- Moncef SlaouiHead of Warp Speed emphasizing manufacturing scale as the hardest part of vaccine delivery.
- Caleb WatneyInstitute for Progress cofounder highlighting whole-of-government urgency and sequencing of decisions.
- Nan RansohoffClimate policy leader explaining AMCs and proposing pull funding for carbon removal and clean cement.
- Thomas KalilFormer OSTP official advocating success-contingent commitments like prizes and advance purchase orders.
- Leopold AschenbrennerAI researcher warning energy constraints and geopolitics could push critical AI infrastructure abroad.
- Sam AltmanOpenAI CEO quoted to frame AI’s dependence on chips and energy, raising stakes for energy abundance.