Cover of Abundance

Abundance

by Ezra Klein


Genre
Nonfiction, Business, Science
Year
2025
Pages
304
Contents

Chapter 4: Invent

Overview

Using Katalin Karikó’s long-rejected mRNA work—and its eventual triumph in the COVID-19 vaccines—the chapter argues that some national crises require invention, not just regulation or building existing capacity. It defines a “Karikó Problem” in American science: NIH-style funding has drifted toward bureaucracy, status games, and peer-review risk aversion that systematically disadvantages young scientists and highly novel ideas. Drawing lessons from DARPA and Bell Labs, the chapter calls for greater public commitment to R&D, high-skilled immigration, and “metascience” experiments to redesign how government funds breakthroughs.

Summary

The chapter opens with Katalin Karikó’s unlikely path to scientific prominence: raised in rural Hungary, she emigrates to the United States after her institute loses funding and eventually lands at the University of Pennsylvania. While the biotech world chases DNA, Karikó commits to the seemingly fragile idea of using mRNA as a temporary medical instruction set for cells. She spends years submitting grant after grant to the NIH, is repeatedly rejected, and is ultimately demoted, leaving her work—and mRNA’s future—apparently stranded.

The narrative jumps to the COVID-19 pandemic, arguing that rules and behavioral interventions produced contested, uneven results, while the world needed a scalable medical solution. mRNA vaccines meet that need with unprecedented speed and broad effectiveness, saving millions of lives. The author uses this contrast to frame invention as a distinct political challenge: some crises cannot be solved mainly by regulating, subsidizing, or building existing things; they require creating something new.

From there, the chapter develops a “politics of invention,” claiming modern liberal goals depend on continual technological progress, while many future problems (decarbonizing aviation and cement, carbon removal, major diseases, rapid pandemic platforms) still require breakthroughs. It argues conservatives often understate government’s role in innovation (citing public support behind technologies and firms like Tesla and SpaceX), and progressives often treat invention as secondary to distribution even though new technology increases what universal programs can deliver.

Returning to mRNA’s origin story, Karikó’s stalled career changes when she meets immunologist Drew Weissman at a Xerox machine in 1997. Together they persist despite grant rejections and early inflammatory failures, eventually finding a way to modify mRNA to avoid triggering dangerous immune responses. Their key paper is rejected by Nature and barely noticed after publication; Karikó later leaves academia, but their work is embraced by private-sector pioneers including Moderna and BioNTech, where Karikó becomes a vice president. When SARS-CoV-2’s genetic sequence is released in January 2020, Moderna designs a vaccine candidate within days, leading to record-speed trials and authorization; Karikó and Weissman later win a Nobel Prize, underscoring how close the breakthrough came to dying from lack of support.

The chapter labels this systemic failure the “Karikó Problem”: American science funding has become biased against young scientists and risky, novel ideas. It links slowing scientific productivity to both the growing “burden of knowledge” and to institutional dysfunction—paperwork, slow reviews, “grantsmanship,” and peer-review incentives that punish highly novel proposals. The author traces how the NIH grew from WWII-era innovation policy into a powerful but increasingly bureaucratic system, shaped by political scrutiny and accountability demands that now consume scientists’ time.

To identify better models, the chapter highlights DARPA’s program-manager-driven approach to ambitious bets and Bell Labs’ long-horizon environment that mixed basic research with practical collaboration. It ends by advocating “metascience”: running policy experiments on science funding itself (simplifying applications, empowering reviewers with “golden tickets,” using lotteries, reducing reporting, funding people rather than projects) and rigorously evaluating outcomes. The goal is a diversified innovation system that takes more risks so future Karikós and life-saving breakthroughs are less likely to be rejected into oblivion.

Who Appears

  • Katalin Karikó
    mRNA pioneer; faces grant rejections and demotion, later vindicated by COVID vaccines and Nobel Prize.
  • Drew Weissman
    Penn immunologist; partners with Karikó to solve mRNA inflammation problem and enable vaccine platform.
  • Pierre Azoulay
    MIT economist; critiques risk-averse science institutions and urges diversified funding experiments.
  • Heidi Williams
    Dartmouth economist; emphasizes innovation’s role in growth and notes decline in government R&D share.
  • John Doench
    Broad Institute R&D leader; argues scientific bureaucracy wastes researchers’ time and slows progress.
  • Jeremy Neufeld
    Institute for Progress fellow; argues high-skilled immigration restrictions reduce US inventive capacity.
  • Vannevar Bush
    WWII science organizer; advances federal basic-research vision that shapes NSF/NIH-era innovation policy.
  • Francis Collins
    Longtime NIH director; acknowledges outdated support structures and need to better enable young scientists.
  • Patricia Labosky
    NIH program leader; describes High-Risk, High-Reward grants designed to fund “out there” ideas.
  • Erica R. H. Fuchs
    Carnegie Mellon professor; explains DARPA’s success through empowered program managers and talent networks.
  • J. C. R. Licklider
    ARPA program leader; assembles collaborators whose work helps create ARPANET, an early internet.
  • Jon Gertner
    Author of The Idea Factory; highlights Bell Labs’ model of time, freedom, and collaboration.
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