Toranaga lies awake, sifting threats and coincidences—Onoshi’s defection, Ishido’s maneuvers, Jesuit meddling, Yabu’s ambitions, and the sudden arrival of the barbarian pilot. He wonders if karma has made the Anjin a spark for upheaval and concludes the barbarian will never be allowed to leave Japan. Hiro-matsu arrives, proves identity with a Buddhist password, and reports doubled guards.

They review the condemned “madman” and the shock to Hiro-matsu’s household: his granddaughter, Fujiko, begs to die with her husband and child. Hiro-matsu seeks permission for his own seppuku; Toranaga refuses both requests, insisting on usefulness over ritual death. On the barbarian, Hiro-matsu lists unsettling contradictions and urges keeping such men on land—or killing them quickly. He notes Toranaga would have avoided Ishido’s ambush if not for the Anjin and presses for immediate war and ordering Yabu to commit seppuku; Toranaga declines to act at once.

Kiri brings tea, lightening the mood with familiar banter. Toranaga recalls their long history and laments their lost child. Memories surface of Nagakudé, Goroda, and the Taikō, whom Toranaga calls the greatest general. Hiro-matsu argues Japan needs one leader, even Toranaga as Shōgun; Toranaga rejects the ambition as treasonous yet admits all Regents would prefer him dead.

Considering routes back to Yedo, Toranaga outlines a lever: the Abbot of Johji Temple is to “invite” Ishido’s mother to view the cherry blossoms. He dispatches a cipher to Sudara stating he will leave Osaka when the Council ends in four days, despite Hiro-matsu’s disapproval. Toranaga again refuses permission for Fujiko’s death and asks how long the barbarian might last in prison.

After Hiro-matsu departs, Toranaga has Kiri send racing pigeons with the true code, “All is well,” which means activate Plan Five: summon Yoshi leaders to Yedo and prepare war. The codeword “Crimson Sky” would launch a drive on Kyoto and the Emperor, coupled with planned provincial uprisings. Toranaga judges the plan sound but likely to fail without his leadership, recalls a lifetime of war and enemies gathering, and hopes to avoid triggering Crimson Sky.